Howards Marks of Oaktree Capital just dropped his latest memo (“The Seven Worst Words In the World“). It may be somewhat of a promotional material for his upcoming book but if you are a serious investor, please go and read it. If you are a beginning investor, please go and read it.
If you care about money at all, please go and read it. It’s probably the most important thing you’ll read this week.
He makes very pertinent points on market cycles and he backs up a lot of what thinks about the current state of affairs with evidence that he sees in the markets today. It’s interesting that he also points towards SoftBank’s $100 billion venture-cap fund as a sign of the times. Guess who else pointed that out some months ago?
The funny thing is that I was also going through Ray Dalio’s “A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crises” and Dalio pretty much makes the same point as Marks does in his latest memo.
The point is that we want to be careful when there is too much money chasing too few deals.
But, but..Isn’t that Market Timing?
For those that think that this is market timing, it isn’t.
Timing the market means that one believes that one can predict exactly when the market is going to turn up or down. This is something that most of us in the fundamental camp don’t presume we’ll be able to do.
In fact, Marks makes it very clear in his memo that he doesn’t know exactly when this will happen. It’s just that, to him, it’s very clear that we aren’t in the part of the cycle where pessimism rules the day and bargains are aplenty.
In this environment, it’s more likely than not that bad deals are going to be done because prices (and the assumptions that the price hinge on) are too optimistic. The details of the mechanics behind why these sort of deals are done can be found in Dalio’s book.
For those that worship Warren Buffett, you should also realise that Buffett is keenly aware of these cycles. He famously shut down his partnership in the late 60s when there weren’t bargains to be found. Warren Buffett also tends to let cash accumulate when deals can’t be made at good prices.
His partner at Berkshire, Charlie Munger, also once said that the way they ran their insurance business was very counter-cyclical to other people. When too much competition drove prices down, they chose NOT to underwrite policies at discounted prices because they knew that these prices would eventually come back to haunt their competitors in a downturn and that’s when they would want to be writing policies.
Do Yourself A Favour
Having said all of the above, please DO NOT take what I’ve said as a signal to go to cash or gold or whatever other asset class. You have to remember that being completely out of the markets has a cost — You give up the returns that you could have got by holding risky assets.
A good example is a colleague of mine who has been (mostly) out of the markets since 2015. He’s missed out on what is probably a 5% per annum return on his capital as well as the 20% growth in the markets last year. For a person with his amount of capital to compound, that opportunity cost might easily be six-figures large.
To conclude, do your future self a favour and go read Mark’s latest memo and Dalio’s latest book.