1 more until CB lifts! But then again, the phased reopening here in Singapore isn’t much more different from life under CB.

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The Industries Hit Hardest By The Unemployment Crisis (FiveThirtyEight)

Pretty much the same in SG. A good friend and I were discussing this relative to the markets and we have pretty much concluded that unless we see blood in the streets, markets are going to hum along just fine.

My thesis is based pretty much on the fact that even in the worst-hit industries, we’ve barely begun to see real damage in terms of closures or bankruptcies.

That wave should come in the next few months if the economy remains shut or reopens at a slower pace than anticipated.

Indonesia has a problem (Thoughts of a Cynical Investor)

Uh-oh. Last time Indonesia owed dollars that it couldn’t pay back… Funny enough, I’ve also heard other stories of how Indonesia isn’t getting the money it’s supposed to for major infrastructure projects because the Middle East is handing out dough like it used to.

How Do You Value Stocks When Earnings Plummet to Zero? (The Big Picture)

Maybe you CAPE-10 the earnings? I don’t know. Just saying that it still doesn’t look cheap on a normalised earnings basis. You have to believe in the growth story to believe the bull market is still on.

The statistical detective work required to lift the lockdowns (Tim Harford)

Good points made on thinking statistically.