When I last wrote about bear market history in Singapore, it was July 2011. The financial market pain lasted for another 2-3 months from then.

If you look at this table (reproduced from the post in the link) again, it gives one a sense of what to expect.

Click for bigger image

Click for bigger image

Now the above table doesn’t account for 08/09, 2011 or what we’re currently going through now. Let’s update those numbers a little.

2008/2009- Global financial crisis/ 3857.25 (high in ’07) to 1513.12 (low in Mar ’09), -60% (% change) / 511 days

2011- Euro debt crisis (??)/ 3261.65 (high in Jan ’11) to 2640.30 (low in Oct ’11), -19% (% change) / 273 days

Obviously, 2011 was technically not a bear market but it sure felt like it. In fact, one might even say that everyone was expecting 2011 to be the bear that we’re experiencing now and that could have the trigger for the bull run prior to the fall we’re experiencing now.

More importantly, where do we stand now?

2015/2016 – Oil, China, Commodities rout / 3539.95 (high in Apr ’15). Given today’s close of 2559.75, we have had a total of a  -27.7% drop over a total of 280 days.If we’re lucky, we’ll just have another 10% more of declines to go; If not, we’re looking at another 30%.

This bear has obviously felt more painful than the last one, especially so because things didn’t look very expensive from a PE10 point of view so I’ve been very early in suggesting that it’s not a bad time to get invested.

Oh, and how long more will the pain last? History suggests anywhere from 0-360 days. Either way, hang on for the ride!

 

*The percentage declines are what we need from today’s close in order to reach -35% and -50% from the high of 3539.95.

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