I don’t usually like blogging about politics but in this case, this is so stupid that I have to say something.
First, a quick recap. The recent Singapore Presidential Elections saw an unprecedented four candidates contesting for the job; Dr Tan Cheng Bock, former MP for Ayer Rajah and Chuan Hup Chairman; Dr Tony Tan, former DPM and chairman of SPH; Mr Tan Kin Lian, former NTUC income CEO and Mr Tan Jee Say, recent contestant of GE2011. What is old news by now is that Dr Tony Tan won the elections with a tiny margin of some 7,ooo votes or some 0.3+% (before accounting for overseas votes which wouldn’t have made a difference to the outcome).
Now, many people have come out in criticism of Mr Tan Kin Lian (5% of votes) and Mr Tan Jee Say (20% of votes) for handing the presidency to Dr Tony Tan- I fully concur. The irony is that voters who voted for the opposition ended up gifting the presidency to the most obviously PAP-backed candidate. Oh well, my beef is isn’t about that but rather I like to use Mr Tan Kin Lian’s post-PE press statement to highlight a one thing- that this is a classic case of Delusion/Cognitive Dissonance.
Way before the PE, Mr Tan Kin Lian (after being a hero to ‘minibombs’ holders) had said that he would run for the Elected Presidency (EP) is he managed to get 100,000 signatures; He got something like 1,000 or two, not that it matters. Then he said that he was running because he wanted to give people a contest- which people got when the two Dr Tans joined in the fray.
Now comes this dasterdly press statement. (full statement here) Relevant extracts below:
As always, the wisdom of hindsight never fails but the truth was that on nomination day, the voters were still largely undecided on whom they would be voting, if at all. My private surveys as well as information from a third party survey pointed to a credible level of support for me. I had also expected strong support from the heartlanders and the over 1 million policyholders of NTUC Income (where I had served for 30 years) as well as many people who remembered my advocacy of public causes and the plight of those who suffered investment losses during the last financial crisis.
From a brief, informal survey of the online chatter and friends, it was pretty easy to know that not many people were going to vote for Tan Kin Lian (TKL). In fact, a rough sensing of was that the older, very conservative folks were gunning for Tony Tan (TT), the pro-opposition moderates were gunning for Tan Cheng Bock (TCB) or Tan Jee Say (TJS) and the hardcore opposition supporters were voting for TJS. As for TKL, he probably had some minibond holders and a few idealists on his side. Ex-NSP sec-gen Goh Meng Seng was the perfect example. BTW, whoever did does surveys for him ought to be shot.
Anyway, it would have been difficult for me to drop out of the contest at nomination date. I would have disappointed the people who wanted to vote for me and also my supporters, who had put in a lot of work during the previous six weeks and my donors.
There was also the risk that I would be considered a coward or a quitter or someone who was never serious about the election. Most importantly, I felt that I could offer a choice of a different platform for Singaporeans to decide.
Now, this I feel is a classic problem of denial. They find the perfect excuse to not face the truth. In this case, the truth was that support for TKL was increadibly low but I don’t think TKL wanted to acknowledge that.
My post mortem should that there were a few weaknesses in my campaign strategy, my image and messaging. I shall not go into them in detail. The clear and positive message, sent in by many people after the results including those who did not vote for me, was that I was seen to be “sincere, courageous and spoke for Singaporeans”. I like to thank them for their support, understanding and encouraging words.
Now, I’m not sure who was on his election committee but they did a damn lousy job. TKL’s hi-5 at the end of his nomination day speech was the joke of the day and if his election committee didn’t point that out, I have only two things to conclude- 1) He surrounds himself with ‘yes-men’ as the rumours said or 2) TKL doesn’t really listen to criticism very well.
I would also make the point that it was really up to the last candidate to withdraw as his platform was similar to mine in several respects. In the arena of natural justice, it is really only fair that the last one in should bear the responsibility for the outcome of the changed situation.
This is a silly point really because the facts show that TJS had a greater vote share which means that he was the better candidate. Why should the last one to sign up drop out of the examination if he/she could get a better chance of passing it?
I had also given a choice to the people of Singapore of a truly non-partisan platform. I respect their decision at this time but hope that the non-partisan concept embodied in my platform will find their support in the future.
I am willing to continue the work of being “the voice of the people”. If there is sufficient interest and support from other interested people, I will create a new website and mechanism to implement this role. If not, I will try to play this role in a smaller way.
What is TKL saying?? It’s obvious voters are voting along partisan lines! After having gotten just 5% of the votes, he still wants to be a ‘Voice of the people’? TKL needs to learn to listen first.
So TKL, listen up!
For someone who wanted to be the voice of the people, how did he get it so wrong? That’s simple. TKL obviously suffers from denial. Being an idealist doesn’t win- Goh Meng Seng should have taught him a lesson or two on this. TJS would have known too. Party politics was obviously very much in play, TKL should have identified which kind of political party voters he was going for and gone for them. The fact that he didn’t get the endorsement of any GE candidates showed what a lack of support he had. The fact that he even went ahead with his laughable campaign antics (hi-fives, his primary school style of reading off his presidential broadcast, the horribly scripted speech) showed that he wasn’t listening, either to his team or the people.
This is just classic denial/cognitive dissonance and it can happen to anyone.
Ryan Goh: Life through these eyes 
[…] This is a great, mean analysis of TKL’s statement after the election from a non-political blogger https://ryangoh.wordpress.com/2011/09/03/thoughts-on-tan-kin-lians-post-pe-press-statement/ […]
Most commenters are writing from the angle of whom they prefer as President…If TKL was indeed selfish and without values as was painted…all of us here would also be guilty as selfish human beings.
Those who wanted to see TCB as President would never talked about TCB’s mean supporters spreading rumours in chatrooms etc to “kill” TKL off in the early part of the race when Tony Tan had not even announced his candidacy, lest to say TJS.
Those who wanted to see TJS as President would never talked about him also sacrificing by pulling out so that TCB would win … they would only want to expect TKL to do so. Why? Supporters of the opposite camps only saw the value of TKL’s 104,095 supporters and votes when TCB lost by a very narrow margin. They suddenly realise they do not want a PAP endorsed President and must use TKL as a scapegoat. I doubt any TJS supporter would call on TJS to quit the race if they had known TCB was having a close fight.
TJS himself would not concede defeat when results was almost clear he would not make it. This was pride typical of any candidate entering any race. Supporters are supporting their candidates based on the the same pride … not to hope that they would be gentlemen by withdrawing.
Nobody would ask if TJS had quited the race, what sort of different outcomes it might bring? A different mix of candidates, the results would be completely different, well said by another intelligent commenter. But all would just want to see their preferred candidate win, not withdrawn from the race.
And if TCB or TJS are so confident of winning the race, and a win is so dear to them and their supporters, why would they just leave it to their supporters to write anonymous emails or letters to TKL? Will they lose their pride to approach TKL when he had said openly that he was “open” to discussions if approached.
Once the hat was thrown into the ring, there was little chance of going backward, particularly for TKL who was No.2 to enter the race. This was where the “common justice” lies, not how many votes a candidate would expect to win.
The real “sore” losers are supporters of TCB who wanted him badly to be President and the supporters of TJS who still think he could be an “opposition” endorsed President. They were proven wrong the night of Election Day and the morning after when the recounting was finished.
Not a TCB campaign committee member smiled on stage when he left again for the Election Dept for the final recount. He thought his Ayer Rajah would deliver…did it? But Sembawang voters did somebody proud. At least proud enough to make TCB’s supporters feel “sore”.
Blame that on TKL? Blame that on TJS? Can TJS’s supporters also blame TKL for the 1OOK over votes…No way … was he able to grab them and more from TCB and TT. No way…He was smart enough to dismiss and disperse his supporters early. LOL.
Come on, all the “sore” losers you know where your “problem” lies…not work hard enough or just enough? This is “sorer” than TKL conceding early defeat…at least TKL’s supporters know the true dear value of the 100K votes which they delivered loyally for TKL whatever ways sored losers want to interpret the meaning of Hi-5 or condemn it.
I recall early in the day, even before the hustings, TKL had apparently approached TCB ostensibly to discuss possibilities between them. I clearly remember an absolute rebuff by TCB. It was reported. I am not privy to details of any comms between them, but I remember this. It was after this occurrence that I noted that TKL invariably would deny that he was thinking of withdrawing when asked.
So TCB may have himself to blame for passing up the chance of a discussion with the TKL.
[…] I didn’t expect the post on Tan Kin Lian’s (TKL) post-PE press statement to generate that kind of buzz that it did. I suspect it’s largely due to atans’ post […]
atans is another cranky.
TCB also had “rumours-spreader” embedded in chatrooms who were gunning down TKL before PE DR TT and TJS entered the race. Who is more unethical? Who is more arrogant? If TCB did not know, then it was his “supporters” who did the wrong things at his back and “back-stabbed” him. So why should TKL withdrew to make him win? ???
Excellent analysis, Ryan! Your conclusions are spot on: 1) He surrounds himself with ‘yes-men’ as the rumours said or 2) TKL doesn’t really listen to criticism very well.
Politicians with poor political acumen get what they rightly deserve: to be crushed by the weight of public opinion.
Anyone who said if TKL or TJS withdraw TCB will win is incorrect. This analysis is based on hindsight alone. None of us here can reverse time and run the same PE contest without one or 2 Tans and say their preferred candidate is to win because of that. I would have cast a spoilt vote if TKL withdrew. Note that 103k TKL voters are his hardcore supporters and may not practice tactical voting. What happens if at the end only 5% of TKL votes went to TCB and still TCB could not win again, so what then?
As for his post PE statement, a man got the right of reply because there are too much people blaming TCB’s narrow loss to him. But why don’t they blame Tony Tan for contesting?
What had passed had already passed. The votes had cast, polls had closed. No point crying over spilled milk. Supporters of various candidate should not hold such hatred in their hearts, but instead channel the negative energy into positive energy and help their preferred candidate with their projects ahead. Good luck.
Hi Dexter,
You’re absolutely right! No one can say for sure that TCB would have won if TJS and TKL weren’t in the race since there is a lack of counterfactual. However, when I said that TKL and TJS supporters gifted it to TT, it was the most probably scenario to me. And that scenario is one of the big ironies of life.
You’re absolutely right to say that TKL has a right of reply and no one is denying or denied him that right. All I did was dissect his reply and show that the man is delusional even in the face of his horrible results at the polls. Too many replies here seem to think that I’m upset that TCB didn’t win or that TT won because of TKL’s presence. That’s silly. If that were the case, shouldn’t I be ranting at TJS too? Or why not I blame TCB for not trying hard enough?
In sum, my post was never about the result of the polls.
It was to show that TKL, in the face of his terrible results at the polls, is still trying to shift the blame onto circumstances that he feels are beyond his control. Now, after receiving many comments in support of TKL, I really feel aggrieved for all TKL supporters. The man spent $70,000 in campaign funds, presumably of money contributed or raised by his supporters, produced god-awful results and he still has supporters defending him?
That’s like the Investors of Sunshine Empire trying to defend the Directors of Sunshine Empire. Truly confounding.
You can read my post again, my main gist is not to defend TKL, but to stop fork-tongued individuals from playing the blame game on the Internet. I will say this again, PE had already passed. TT won due to confluence of factors, TKL, TJS, TCB all played as factors. I cannot see by continuing this charade you will gain anything from it.
You want to be another Belmont Lay?
PS: Comparing people who posted to rebut you to supporters of TKL to investors of Sunshine Empire, clearly you don’t know these 3 issues in depth and tried to smudge all 3 issues together.
[…] of a Cynical Investor: Don’t cry for TKL, but what abt GMS? – Ryan Goh: Life through these eyes: Thoughts on Tan Kin Lian’s post-PE press statement [Thanks Adrian] – TOC: A four-horse race benefited Tan Cheng Bock – TOC: Demystifying the […]
try try agin, with honesty and fairness next time ..:0
Ryan can try try harder and with more honesty and fairness again. keep healthy open mind when analyst aftermath next time.
@”That’s like the Investors of Sunshine Empire trying to defend the Directors of Sunshine Empire.”
Have you really know what was “Sunshine Empire” doing, or are you poor in understanding and writing English? Don’t spit “venom”. Read it here :- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_Empire
seems like ryangoh posts are losing facts and credibility. .Take a sound advice next round, Ryan, no matter what happens in the surroundings, one should not be distracted and only stay calm inside.
It’s really ironic that those who accuse others of writing bad English are themselves guilty of the same thing. Pot calling the kettle black.
Grammatically wrong: “Have you really know what was “Sunshine Empire” doing”
Correct version: “Do you really know what Sunshine Empire was doing”
Not to mention a few errors in tenses.
[…] people that they know have little odds of succeeding and yet they do so because they suffer from cognitive dissonance- i.e. they find all sorts of reasons to defy their […]